Photo : Kenzo Tribouillard/ AFP
Photo : Kenzo Tribouillard/ AFP
By Rosemary Kurian
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 21 March, according to Ukrainska Pravda, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine President, urged leaders of the EU to provide air defence for protecting Ukraine’s frontline cities. Zelenskyy urged them to help protect Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipro, Odesa, Kherson and other cities. He further urged leaders to boost their ammunition supplies to Ukraine to “destroy” Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President “aggressive potential now.”
On 21 March, according to the Associated Press, the foreign ministers of the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia met to discuss the Czech plan, aimed to support Ukraine with ammunition supplies from third countries. Hungary and Slovakia stated that they were not ready to change their policy on refusal to provide arms to Ukraine. The Czech plan aims to acquire ammunition from non-EU third countries to be provided to Ukraine. Jan Lipavsky, the Czech Foreign Minister, stated that “it’s necessary to boost support for Ukraine in all areas.” The plan aims to obtain 800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine. The Czech Republic aims to deliver the first shells by June 2024.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 21 March, according to RT, the Russian Defence Ministry announced that the Russian forces “liberated” the Tonenkoye village in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), following taking over the town of Avdeevka in mid-February. Tonenkoye forms part of the Orlovka-Tonenkoye-Berdychi line. Orlovka was taken over by the Russian military earlier in the week, causing disruptions in Ukrainian communication in the latter two villages in the line, with Berdychi facing active combat. The Ministry further noted that Ukrainian forces lost 320 soldiers, a tank, four armoured and seven unarmoured vehicles.
On 21 March, according to RT, Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, stated that despite sanctions from the West, Russia had doubled its export of petroleum products to Africa. In an interview, Lavrov further stated that with Iran’s “legal rights” to export oil being restored, there was no threat on the Russian export market. He explained that within the framework of OPEC+ of which Iran and Russia are members, “…there is a clear understanding of how to negotiate and seek compromises,” and therefore, “no one is at a loss, no one is offended,” when asked about competition from Iran in the oil export market. After the EU reduced its energy exports from Russia since the beginning of the war with Ukraine, Russia has increased its energy exports to Asia and Africa, with China and India emerging as key buyers. Ghana, Libya, Tunisia and Togo have reported a 100 per cent growth in Russian oil imports. Growth in imports by Morocco, Senegal and Nigeria was also noted.
THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe
On 20 March, according to Politico, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, asked Sauli Niinistö, former Finnish President, to prepare a report on means to enhance Europe’s civilian and defence preparedness. Since “Putin’s ambition does not end in Ukraine,” von der Leyen stated that the EU could learn from Finland so that “people can be prepared for all emergencies, including military, hybrid threats and natural disasters.” Finland’s 1300 km long border with Russia is a reason for its superior security policy. Von der Leyen addressed the member states’ concern of a potential EU power grab on matters of defence, stating that “the whole organisation of troops is competence of member states.”
On 21 March, according to Politico, leaders of the EU were divided on the means to finance weapons to support Ukraine while Russia increased its military offensive. At the EU Summit in Brussels, the leaders agreed on the need to increase spending on defence to arm Ukraine but disagreed on the means to achieve it. The leaders of the 27 member states agreed on the need to approach the European Investment Bank to ease its lending policies for defence companies despite the risks to the bank, but failed to agree on the bigger picture for European financing of weapons, which is through defence bonds. While France, Estonia and Poland were among those who agreed to push the idea of EU joint bonds, Germany, The Netherlands and Austria opposed the notion.
On 22 March, according to Deutsche Welle, Tobias Billstrom, Sweden’s Foreign Minister, stated that with the joining of Sweden and Finland into NATO, the security of the Baltic Sea region will be improved, given the prospect of a “prolonged” war with Russia. Russia now remains the only non-NATO member around the Baltic Sea. Billstrom reinstated his continued support for Ukraine against Russian invasion, for which Sweden would provide political, financial and military assistance. He further stated Sweden’s decision to join the Czech initiative to procure ammunition for Ukraine. Billstrom added that the EU must utilise all means to ensure Ukrainian victory so that it “puts a stop to Russia once and for all.” Sweden officially joined NATO last month after it, along with Finland, left their policy of neutrality after Russia’s war in Ukraine.
THE GLOBAL FALLOUTS
Implications of the War
On 21 March, according to Deutsche Welle, Rafael Grossi, the Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), noted the importance of the role of nuclear energy to secure the goal of low carbon emissions compared to fossil fuels, but highlighted the challenges faced due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Grossi stressed on the “international consensus” reached to include nuclear energy in tackling global warming, especially for Europe. However, with Russia being a key supplier of fuel for nuclear power plants, the attempts at reducing the reliance on Russia by the US and Europe might take some time. Currently, “the majority of the market” for supply lies with Russia. He further emphasised on the dangers posed by the war to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the front lines, a catastrophe that has so far been prevented due to certain guidelines by the UN Security Council. Grossi predicted that “probably within the next four or five years,” Western Europe and North America will witness the arrival of the first Small Modular Reactors (SMR), which have one-third the capacity of regular large nuclear power plants but which are cheaper and easier to install for regions with limited grid coverage.
References
“Zelenskyy asks EU leaders for air defence to protect cities and the sky over front line”, Ukrainska Pravda, 21 March 2024
“Hungary, Slovakia remain opposed to sending any arms to Ukraine to fight Russia’s invasion”, Associated Press, 21 March 2024
“Russian army announces new Donbass gains”, RT, 21 March 2024
“Russia doubles oil exports to Africa – Lavrov”, RT, 21 March 2024
Jacopo Barigazzi, “Von der Leyen asks Finland to prepare the EU for war, Politico, 20 March 2024
Barbara Moens and Jacopo Barigazzi, “Russia doubles down on Ukraine war while EU leaders are divided on how to finance weapons”, Politico, 21 March 2024
Rana Taha, “Sweden joining NATO bolsters Baltic Sea security — Billstrom”, Deutsche Welle, 22 March 2024
Alex Berry, “Nuclear energy offers fossil fuel alternative — IAEA chief”, Deutsche Welle, 21 March 2024